Journal of Engineering and Architecture

Sales Forecast of Electric Vehicles Antonio Naranjo Redondo, Alberto Pérez Cagigas


Abstract
The present research presents the sales forecast of electric vehicles in Spain until the year 2040, all of these under the conditions of different technological generations and scenarios. Although the market structure isn’t clear yet, goverments and car makers recognize that is an important strategical factor to know the sales forecast to mid and long term; so both could design the most suitable strategy. The evolution of the transition between ICE and EV is conditioned by objective factors (Fuels prices, autonomy range and government grants) and subjective factors (Post-materialist values related with ecology and the interest in new technologies). The present research uses a developed versión of the Bass Model (1969), known as BB-04X (P. Bass & Frank, 2004), which allows to contemplate different generations of the product as well as the leapfrogging phenomenon. A preference model is used to calculate the number of potencialdrivers, this contemplates that the switch can be based in the drivers preferences only when the EV has a certain amount of features, independently of the entry barriers and the forced adoptions. All the data used has been obtained form the survey developed by IPSOS-TRT company in different countries of the European Union in 2012. The present research presents the sales forecast of electric vehicles in Spain until the year 2040, all of these under the conditions of different technological generations and scenarios. It uses a developed versión of the Bass Model (1969), known as BB-04X (P. Bass & Frank, 2004), which allows to contemplate different generations of the product as well as the leap-frogging phenomenon.

Full Text: PDF     DOI: 10.15640/jea.v3n1a8